Oscar predictions and hopes

Another Oscar year is upon us. Another year of bitching and moaning when the movies we love are shut out and the movies we hate go home with gold. Another year of saying "I have lost total respect for the Academy" and "I will never watch again." Yet we always do. Why? Because bitching and moaning is all part of the fun, isn't it? Now, I've heard some crazy internet rumours this year that instead of the usual 5 nominees, we now have 10, and movies like "District 9," "Up," "The Blind Side," and "Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen" are among the best picture nominees. I assure you, this is all nonsense.

The 5 films competing for the prestigious "Best Motion Picture of the Year" title are:

Avatar

The Hurt Locker

Inglorious Basterds

Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Saphire

and

Up in the Air

I'm going to go through some predictions as well as personal preferences/hopes through some of the major categories, even though I'm terrible at predicting these things. I'm going to make my justifications with these and enter the Joblo Oscar Prediction Contest, and I look forward to not winning a Blu-ray player.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Monique has been winning awards left and right for her portrayal as Precious' abusive, crazy-as-shit mother. Deservedly so, because this is a performance that can give you the chills. You go from hating this character so much at the beginning, but as the story moves along and Precious gains strength and independence, you just can't help pitying this lost soul. Her final scene is probably her strongest, you get the sense that this woman has just completely lost touch with reality and can no longer deal with her own demons. It's a great performance.

The competition is slim, too. Penelope Cruz won her Oscar last year so it's not as if she will win again and her nomination is just there to take up space. Maggie Gyllenhaal's nomination was somewhat of a surprise but she's generated little buzz and has been having to deal with living in the shadow of her Crazy Heart co-star Jeff Bridges' wide acclaim. I think a lot of people even forget that she was nominated this year. Anna Kendrick was delightful and funny in Up in the Air but I do think Vera Farmiga gives the better performance of the two and if anyone wins over Monique it would be her.

WILL WIN: Monique

SHOULD WIN: Monique

POSSIBLE UPSET: Vera Farmiga

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

It's funny how for the last 3 years, the Best Supporting Actor Award has pretty much been a lock, and even funnier that they've all been for villain roles. Javier Bardem's Anton Chigurh, Heath Ledger's Joker, and now Christoph Waltz's Hans Landa. That's a hell of a rogues gallery right there. From the very second Waltz steps on screen you know you're seeing something special, and Inglorious Basterds has made made Christoph Waltz a household name practically over night. And hopefully we will see him in more movies to come and become a beloved character actor.

The only other person generating much buzz is Woody Harrelson for his role in The Messenger. I love Woody Harrelson. The guy is constantly reaffirming his talent as an actor and consistently topping himself with every couple of roles. Many believe that if it weren't for Waltz, he would be a shoe-in to win, but I wouldn't worry too much, because I think the best from Woody Harrelson has yet to come.

Christopher Plummer is also nominated this year. And it's weird because I just assumed he had like 10 Oscars already. This the first nomination of his career. Mind-blowing. He has no chance of winning but at least now he is an Oscar nominated actor, which is good enough.

Other nominees include Stanley Tucci (also a first time nominee) in a role that was the highlight of what many agree to be an average-to-unsatisfying film, and Matt Damon, who is on the list because he kicks ass as Jason Bourne and can actually act when needed to.

Basically, it's Waltz's year. Expect no upsets.

WILL WIN: Christoph Waltz

SHOULD WIN: Christoph Waltz

POSSIBLE UPSET: nah

BEST ACTRESS

Okay. Nothing against Sandra Bullock as a person, she seems really nice unless she's totally faking it and is a complete phony (hey, it's Hollywood, baby), but seriously...who is she blowing to win all these awards? This is the same actress from Speed 2: Cruise Control, this is the same actress who uttered the immortal lines "I'm angry all the time and I don't know why" from Crash. Does she even qualify as A-list? It's not like she's Julia Roberts or anything. I'll be completely honest- I did not see The Blind Side but even so, I know she doesn't deserve to win. And she will. Damn. I will say this, though: Bullock has achieved the rare rank of MILF status and actually being kind of hotter now that she's older, much like Marissa Tomei, who actually CAN act.

Meryl Streep is nominated but she has the curse of being so good that her performance has to be incredibly groundbreaking and blow everyone away to even have the possibility of garnering another award. Hellen Mirren has already had her time in the sun with The Queen, Carey Mulligan is basically just getting the "rising-star-happy-to-be-nominated-maybe-will-win-in-the-future-better-not-fuck-it-up-like-Kiera-Knightley" place on the list of nominees, and then we have a stand-out unique nominee: Gabourey Sidibe, from Precious.

I would love it- love it if Gabourey Sidibe won over Sandra Bullock. For my money, hers is the absolute best performance of the year. She plays the character perfectly, and if you've seen her in any interviews, you can see right away that the performance was a huge stretch from what she's like in real life. She was completely unknown before this movie and she's pretty much just riding the "happy to be nominated" train and enjoying the spotlight while it lasts. Getting an Oscar nomination opens a lot of doors for people, but it's not as if she's going to be appearing as the lead in any romantic comedies any time soon. She should win because it is a great performance and most likely a once in a lifetime performance, too. If Sandra Bullock tries really hard, maybe she's pull of some better work down the road, but it seems like Sidibe was born to play Precious and she does an absolutely incredible job. If there is one huge surprise of the night, please God, let it be her winning.

WILL WIN: Sandra Bullock

SHOULD WIN: Gabourey Sidibe

POSSIBLE UPSET: Unfortunately, it looks like Bullock's year

BEST ACTOR

Here's a fun fact for you: Jeff Bridges has the unique distinction of being the only actor in history to be nominated for an Oscar for playing a character that wasn't a human being. He played an alien in Star Man. And no, wizards don't count as non-humans (shove it, McKellen). Jeff Bridges is a great actor who has been around seemingly forever: character actor, multiple Oscar-nominee, cult favourite (he's the dude, man), and once-teenage heartthrob. It's his year. If he had won before, then maybe I'd say there'd be a chance for Jeremy Renner to pull off an Adrien Brody, but since Bridges has never won before, he's going to win it. I haven't seen Crazy Heart so I'm not 100% sure if he deserves to win or not, but much like Al Pacino and Paul Newman, he's reached the point where he deserves his recognition from the Academy.

The only performance I've seen of the 5 is actually George Clooney, which makes it pretty hard to state my preferences. I'm going to watch The Hurt Locker some time before the Oscars (which only gives me like 3 or 4 days), and I've heard nothing but good things about Renner. The one performance I'm really really interested in seeing is Colin Firth's in A Single Man. I've never really given him a second thought, seeing as how he's always in romantic comedies, but it looks like a very good movie and could probably be one of those career-defining performances.

So there's not really much I can say other than the obvious. Morgan Freeman and George Clooney already have Oscars so they won't win, Renner and Firth are the (very) dark horses, and all signs point to a Jeff Bridges victory.

WILL WIN: Jeff Bridges

SHOULD WIN: N/A

POSSIBLE UPSET: the dude thinks not

BEST DIRECTOR

It's strange, isn't it? Usually the interesting neck-and-neck races are with the acting categories, but this year the biggest question of the entire night will be answered when either James Cameron or Katherine Bigelow take home the award for best director. This race is made all the more juicy because of the fact that they were once married.

I really have no idea who will win. Now, with this prediction, everyone is whipping out the "whoever wins the DGA award will win the Oscar" card, but the fact is, it it doesn't always happen. The last such incident was when Mel Gibson won Best Director over Ron Howard. So it isn't set in stone. And the fact that this happened over a decade ago is all the more reason to think the streak may be broken.

But Bigelow has 3 things going for her:

1. The DGA win
2. The academy loves setting milestones and if she wins she will be the first woman to win the Best Director Oscar
3. James Cameron made an ass out of himself last time he won

But null all that because James Cameron is some kind of evil genius and the guy just knows something we don't know. He made the highest grossing film of all time, so what does he do to top himself? He makes the highest grossing film of all time. Titanic swept the Oscars. Will he top himself by sweeping the Oscars with Avatar? Fuck, man, maybe he will. I just hope he doesn't look deep into the eyes of his Oscar and say, "I see you." The audience should have their tomatoes ready just in case.

Personally, I wish that Tarantino would win. Maybe the academy will split the vote and I'm sure he'd be next in line. One thing you can appreciate about all 3 of these directors is that they tend to take their time between films and choose the right projects and do a good job.

But anyway, I honestly don't know which director will win: Cameron or Bigelow. It's like a little angel and devil fighting on my shoulders. Maybe it will be a tie. Ties aren't completely unprecedented when it comes to the Oscars. But when you get right down to it, my instinct tells me that the winner will be James Cameron.

WILL WIN: James Cameron

SHOULD WIN: Quentin Tarantino

POSSIBLE UPSET: Quentin Tarantino, or a tie between Bigelow and Cameron

BEST PICTURE

I honestly didn't mean to write so much and if you've actually read this blog, goddamn, you deserve an Oscar. So I will keep this short.

Last time I checked, the Oscars were made of Gold.

The highest grossing film of all time will win.

Even though I liked Precious just a little better than Inglorious Basterds, I think IB should win. It's not quite an epic but it's not quite the little indie that could either.

WILL WIN: Avatar

SHOULD WIN: Inglorious Basterds

POSSIBLE UPSET: maybe another tie between Hurt Lock and Avatar, hmm?

Mood: Chillin'

Jack The Narrator at 11:36 PM Mar 04

The "rumors" were actually true about there being 10 Best Picture nominees. Unless you were being sarcastic. The other 5 nominees this year are DISTRICT 9, THE BLIND SIDE, UP, AN EDUCATION, and A SERIOUS MAN.