I Am Jack's Oscar Predictions
Most watch them so that they can see what the celebrites are wearing (who cares?) others just like to sit and make fun of everything they see on-screen (really, people?). But I for one actully watch the Academy Awards with enthralled anticipation for the movies themselves and the joy and surprise of of who and what will win on Hollywood's day of days. As I always do in some fashion or another every year, I make a list of the years Oscar Nominees (save for the short film/documentary/foregin film categories) and make my well-thought out predictions to who will win versus who I personally think should win as well as the most likely dark horse candidates whom may take the night by surprise.
Here are the nominees in no particular order:
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
ANOTHER YEAR, Mike Leigh
THE FIGHTER, Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy, Eric Johnson
INCEPTION, Christopher Nolan
THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT, Lisa Cholodenko, Stuart Blumberg
THE KING'S SPEECH, David Seidler
While most would agree that INCEPTION is the most imaginative, Siedler has been taking home the most awards so far for his magnificently structured bio-pic script wich manages to inform, move and entertain in equal parts. No small feat.
What Will Win: THE KING'S SPEECH
Who I'd Like To Win: I'll be happy if THE KING'S SPEECH, THE FIGHTER, or INCEPTION wins
Dark Horse: INCEPTION
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
127 HOURS, Danny Boyle & Simon Beaufoy
THE SOCIAL NETWORK, Aaron Sorkin
TOY STORY 3, Michael Arndt
TRUE GRIT (2010), Joel & Ethan Coen
WINTER'S BONE, Debra Grannik & Anne Rosselini
I find it hard that anybody would contest Sorkin's verbally electric and super-sharp dark comedy tete-a-tete. The guy can write the shit out of anything.
What Will Win: THE SOCIAL NETWORK
What I'd Like to Win: THE SOCIAL NETWORK
Dark Horse: TRUE GRIT (thin odds though)
BEST ART DIRECTION
ALICE IN WONDERLAND (2010), Robert Stromberg
HARRY POTTER & THE DEATHLY HALLOWS: PART 1, Stuart Craig
INCEPTION, Guy Hendrix Dyas
THE KING'S SPEECH, Eve Stewart
TRUE GRIT (2010), Jess Gonchor
Imagination is the key factor in this category which is why Tim Burton's ALICE IN WONDERLAND and Chiris Nolan's INCEPTION seem like no-brainer front runner's in this department. INCEPTION in particular, since architecture plays A crucial role in the movie.
What Will Win: ALICE IN WONDERLAND
What I'd Like to See Win: Tough call on this one but Id have to side with INCEPTION over ALICE since many of ALICE's beautiful scenics are done via blue screen/matte image versus more set pieces that are the real thing like in INCEPTION.
Dark Horse: THE KING'S SPEECH or INCEPTION
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
BLACK SWAN, Matthew Libatique
INCEPTION, Wally Pfister
THE KING'S SPEECH, Danny Cohen
THE SOCIAL NETWORK, Jeff Cronenweth
TRUE GRIT (2010), Roger Deakins
Many times, the film I'd like to see win in this category never wins. Case in Point: Rodger Deakins has been nominated more times than I can remember (and deservedly so, he's a rembrandt), yet he has never won. Until now....perhaps? The academy likes handsomly-shot movies over more risque experimental photography like in BLACK SWAN, but who knows, especially with how movies are being "filmed" these days (i.e. AVATAR)
What Will Win: Probably TRUE GRIT
What I'd like to see win: TRUE GRIT. What's it gonna take for Deakins to win on Oscar?
Dark Horse: INCEPTION or BLACK SWAN
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
ALICE IN WONDERLAND (2010), Colleen Atwood
I AM LOVE, Antonella Cannarozzi
THE KING'S SPEECH, Jenny Beavan
THE TEMPEST, Sandy Powell
TRUE GRIT (2010), Mary Zophres
Jenny Beavan is a past winner (A ROOM WITH A VIEW), so she's already in good graces with the Academy. Plus, the fact that she designed the costumes for the Best Picture frontrunner should be enough to push her past dark-horse contender and two-time winner Colleen Atwood. But don't rule out the lush and elegant dresses that graced Tilda Swinton's delicious body in I AM LOVE, many people were talking about them after I saw that movie.
What Will Win: Probably THE KING'S SPEECH
What I'd Like to See Win: ALICE IN WONDERLAND or I AM LOVE
Dark Horse: ALICE IN WONDERLAND or I AM LOVE
BEST FILM EDITING
BLACK SWAN, Andrew Weisblum
THE FIGHTER, Pamela Martin
THE KING'S SPEECH, Tariq Anwar
127 HOURS, Jon Harris
THE SOCIAL NETWORK, Angus Wall and Kirk Baxter
The key to great editing is to not only keep the film's pacing fast and zesty but to always make sure the audience can tell where they are and what is going on. With THE SOCIAL NETWORK switching back and forth between timelines (without on-screen info) with the greatest of ease shows how I feel that this movie is a shoe-in for this award.
Will Win: THE SOCIAL NETWORK
What I'd Like to See Win : THE SOCIAL NETWORK
Dark Horse: THE KING'S SPEECH
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON, John Powell
INCEPTION, Hans Zimmer
THE KING'S SPEECH, Alexander Desplat
127 HOURS, A.R. Rahman
THE SOCIAL NETWORK, Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross
I was very happy to see Powell get nominated (he's a protege of Hans Zimmer) for DRAGON. Zimmer's INCEPTION score has been the talk of the town all year (even though I thought his score for last year's SHERLOCK HOLMES was a bit better), Rahman won only 2 years ago for SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE, so his chance of winning is moot (in this category at least, see Best Origianl Song). I'd love to see Despalt win, just not for THE KING'S SPEECH (his score was beautiful but minimal and the film featured more existing classical source music than original compositions). Reznor & Ross may finally break that long-awaited barrier where techno scores will finally get the respect they rightfully deserve.
What Will Win THE SOCIAL NETWORK
What I'd Like to See Win THE SOCIAL NETWORK
Dark Horse: THE KING'S SPEECH
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
'Coming Home' - COUNTRY STRONG
'I See the Light' - TANGLED
'If I Rise' - 127 HOURS
'We Belong Together' - TOY STORY 3
Still have no clue why there is only 4 instead of 5 nominees this year. and why that missing fifth nominee isn't Cher's song from BURLESQUE. But I digress. All four songs were very memorable. But "If I Rise" has that extra touch of powerful drama that makes it's it stand out amongst it's competiors.
What Will Win: 127 HOURS
What I'd Like to See Win: 127 HOURS
Dark Horse: TOY STORY 3
BEST SOUND MIXING
INCEPTION
THE KING'S SPEECH
SALT
THE SOCIAL NETWORK
TRUE GRIT (2010)
I'm sure many will assume that INCEPTION will win in this category. But the key to good sound mixing is to make all the sound effects (especially the dialouge) come through nice and clear. In INCEPTION there were some scenes where I couldn't understand what was being said, while in the dance club scene in THE SOCIAL NETWORK I could make out every thing that Mark & Sean were saying to eachother during that lengthy bass-heavy sequence.
What Will Win: INCEPTION
What I'd Like to See Win: THE SOCIAL NETWORK
Dark Horse: THE SOCIAL NETWORK
BEST SOUND EDITING
INCEPTION
TOY STORY 3
TRON: LEGACY
TRUE GRIT (2010)
UNSTOPPABLE
Great sound editing incorperattes sound effects that viewers have never heard before. Which places INCEPTION and TRON in a far lead for this category.
What Will Win: INCEPTION
What I'd Like to See Win: TRON: LEGACY
Dark Horse: TRUE GRIT
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
ALICE IN WONDERLAND (2010)
HARRY POTTER & THE DEATHLY HALLOWS: PART 1
HEREAFTER
INCEPTION
IRON MAN 2
For the first time (finally!!!) there are 5 nominees in this category instead of 3. Given that INCEPTION's visual effects are very much reality based (and to that the fact that Nolan's THE DARK KNIGHT won this category 2 years earlier has it as the near-sure fire winner. But Don't rule out HARRY POTTER, ALICE or IRON MAN
What will Win: INCEPTION
What I'd like to see Win: IRON MAN 2
Dark Horse: ALICE IN WONDERLAND
BEST MAKEUP
BARNEY'S VERSION
THE WAY BACK
THE WOLFMAN (2010)
Always bet on Rick Baker, who put his magic to use in THE WOLFMAN. Though the aging makeup used on Paul Giamatti in BARNEY'S VERSION has been recieving accolades as well.
What Will Win: THE WOLFMAN
What I'd Like to See Win: THE WOLFMAN
Dark Horse: BARNEY'S VERSION
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON
THE ILLUSIONIST (2010)
TOY STORY 3
As happy as I am to see DRAGON included on here. I must say I'm flustered as to why there are only 3 nominees this year given the fact that there where a record number of animated films released this past year. Nonetheless, TOY STORY 3 is going to win hand's down.
What Will Win: TOY STORY 3
What I'd like to see Win: TOY STORY 3
Dark Horse: HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, THE FIGHTER
Helena Bonham Carter, THE KING'S SPEECH
Melissa Leo, THE FIGHTER
Hailee Steinfeld, TRUE GRIT (2010)
Jacki Weaver, ANIMAL KINGDOM
A tough call: 4 weeks ago, I would have said Leo for sure. But now Haliee Steinfeld is gaining tremendous momentum. Child actors often do very well in this category (Anna Paquin in THE PIANO immediately comes to mind). Leo is also competing against co-star Adams in the same movie. Which could cancel her out completley. And if THE KING'S SPEECH ends up sweeping the Oscars, Carter could very likely take home the little gold naked man as well.
Who Will Win: Melissa Leo
Who I'd Like to See Win: Melissa Leo
Dark Horse: Hailee Steinfeld
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christian Bale, THE FIGHTER
John Hawkes, WINTER'S BONE
Jeremy Renner, THE TOWN
Mark Ruffalo, THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT
Geoffrey Rush, THE KING'S SPEECH
Bale's got this all but in the bag. Hawkes' performance is the kind that sneaks up on you and takes you by surprise. And if KING'S SPEECH sweeps, Rush could very likely win as well.
Who Will Win: Christian Bale
Who I'd Like to See Win: Christian Bale
Dark Horse: Geoffrey Rush or John Hawkes
BEST ACTRESS
Annette Bening, THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT
Nicole Kidman, RABBIT HOLE
Jennifer Lawrence, WINTER'S BONE
Natalie Portman, BLACK SWAN
Michelle Williams, BLUE VALENTINE
Many people think that Beining is Portman's only compettion (claiming she is overdue for a win). The nominees this year are very strong. But in the end Portman will win. 2011 is the year of The Portman: With awards aplenty, a baby on the way and 5 movies being released this year. Michelle Willaims could surpise win, but she still has a lot to offer in her already amazing career.
Who Will Win: Natalie Portman
Who I'd like to See Win: Portman or Williams
Dark Horse: Annette Bening
BEST ACTOR
Javier Bardem, BIUTIFUL
Jeff Bridges, TRUE GRIT (2010)
Jesse Eisenberg, THE SOCIAL NETWORK
Colin Firth, THE KING'S SPEECH
James Franco, 127 HOURS
Firth is First. Long overdue for an Oscar (I wish he'd won for last year's A SINGLE MAN) Firth gave a spectacular performance as the struglling, stammering future King George VI; while always making him an endearing and fallable man underneath. Franco & Eisneberg have the only real shot at pulling an upset. Franco epecially (127 HOURS depended soley on his performance, and he was sublime).
Who Will Win: Colin Firth
Who I'd Like to See Win: Firth or Franco
Dark Horse: Franco (slim odds though)
BEST DIRECTION
Darren Aronofsky, BLACK SWAN
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, TRUE GRIT (2010)
David Fincher, THE SOCIAL NETWORK
Tom Hooper, THE KING'S SPEECH
David O'Russell, THE FIGHTER
This could very likely be one of those years where the Best Picture and Best Diector Oscars go to different movies. While THE KING'S SPEECH has gained serious momentum this awards season. Fincher's smooth-as-silk work on the facebook allegory has not wavered once this month. The Finchmiester is finally gonna win his Oscar (knock wood).
Who Will Win: David Fincher
Who I'd Like to See Win: David Fincher or David O' Russell
Dark Horse: Tom Hooper
BEST PICTURE
BLACK SWAN
THE FIGHTER
INCEPTION
THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT
THE KING'S SPEECH
127 HOURS
THE SOCIAL NETWORK
TOY STORY 3
TRUE GRIT (2010)
WINTER'S BONE
It's a neck and neck race between THE KING'S SPEECH and THE SOCIAL NETWORK. In the end I believe the academy wll side with NETWORK due to it's time capsule-like representation of our current society but one with a timeless social allegory that people will still respond to decades from now when facebook no longer exists.
What Will Win: THE SOCIAL NETWORK
What I Think Should Win: THE SOCIAL NETWORK
Dark Horse: THE KING'S SPEECH
If anybody has anything they'd like to add or their own personal pick/omissions, don't hesitate to post them on this blog.
Horny
I'm going for a King's Speech win and yes, Roger Deakings and Hailee Steinfeld will get the . How come you prefer Iron Man 2's over Inception's FX?
Nicely done my friend, nicely done.
Should have mine done sometime before the big show, maybe later today hopefully. I was 14/24 last year so I'm definitely looking to improve upon that! These choices aren't going to make it very easy though. I'm really all about THE SOCIAL NETWORK myself.